From AFOA General Counsel, Olsson Frank Weeda:

An update on significant trade developments:

Country Specific Trade Deals

President Trump indicated the administration is working on “five or six” potential trade deals, anticipating that “two or three” might materialize, contingent on partner countries opening their markets to U.S. products.

• India is included within these trade deals. Specifics of the US-India deal have not been disclosed but reportedly may mirror the terms of the Indonesia deal.
• Reports indicate that South Korea has appeared more inclined to open its market to the US which has increased that likelihood that it will reach a favorable trade deal with the US.
• President Trump signaled Japan would likely receive a tariff letter unilaterally setting a 25% tariff on Japanese-origin imports rather than a trade deal due to its perceived reluctance to open its market.
• More details on Vietnam-US and China-US trade deals are unlikely to be issued prior to August 1 as the administration believes it is unnecessary to do so.

Blanket (Baseline) Tariff Rate on Other Countries

We had previously reported that rather than reach a tariff deal setting individual tariff rates with each of the United States’ approximately 200 trading partners, President Trump indicated that he was considering issuing letters to the less prominent partners setting out a blanket tariff rate of approximately 15% to 20. In an interview yesterday (July 16), Trump indicated that the Administration still intends to send tariff letters to approximately 150 nations unilaterally setting out a blanket tariff rate; however, he indicated that the blanket tariff rate would now be 10% to 15% (although he has not yet reached a final decision).

Sectoral Tariffs

Pharmaceuticals

On the evening of July 15, President Trump indicated that Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceuticals are expected to commence “probably at the end of the month.” Consistent with our prior updates, he stated that these tariffs will initially be low, allowing pharmaceutical companies approximately a year to relocate production to the U.S., after which they will become “very high.”

Semiconductors

When questioned about semiconductor tariffs, President Trump stated they would follow a “similar” timeline, noting their implementation as “less complicated” in comparison to the pharmaceuticals tariffs.

Other Section 232 investigations

We are aware of reports that the scope of tariffs which may potentially be imposed under other pending Section 232 investigations—covering products such as lumber, critical minerals, heavy-duty trucks, commercial aircraft and engines, polysilicon, and drones – remain undetermined and may be significantly influenced by advocacy from domestic stakeholders and members of Congress. Importers are strongly encouraged to submit formal comments and consider engaging in informal processes with both the executive branch and congressional offices; while President Trump has indicated that he has reached a decision on Section 232 tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, there may still be an opportunity for informal advocacy on those products as well. Our Government Relations practice groups can provide guidance on how to navigate lobbying efforts. Importers should proactively adjust supply chains to reduce dependence on specific suppliers or countries and to meticulously review and clarify duty liability clauses in both existing and future contracts related to these commodities in this fast-paced changing environment.

CBP Issues Guidance on Applying Section 232 Import Duties on USMCA-Qualifying Passenger Vehicles and Light Trucks.

CSMS # 65649652, issued on 07/16/2025, provides guidance on applying the 25 percent Section 232 duty exclusively to the value of the non-U.S. content for approved imports of passenger vehicles and light trucks qualifying for preferential tariff treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

We will continue to circulate an end-of-day summary of significant trade developments throughout the week and share further updates as letters are issued.